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Vipkid为何融资遇冷

www.howdiceisthat.com2019-07-13
诚博娱乐平台

Recently, the media said that Vipkid is struggling to raise 500 million US dollars, with a target value of 5.5 billion to 6 billion US dollars. Only a year has passed since the successful financing of Vipkid.

Last June, from the US well-known hedge funds Coatue, Tencent and Sequoia and other investment institutions to raise $500 million D + round of financing, refreshing the global online education track with the highest financing record, becoming the only educational startup in China with a valuation of more than 3.5 billion US dollars.

Six years ago, at the age of 17, Mi Wenjuan, who was in the English education industry, founded the company to connect North American foreign teachers and Chinese children aged 4-12 with an Internet platform. One-to-one English training was provided by video, more than 160 yuan. More than 20 minutes of single-course price, mainly aimed at first- and second-tier primary school students.

According to official data, Vipkid currently has 60,000 teachers in the United States and more than 600,000 students in China.

Over the past year, Vipkid has continued to grow its growth story from one-to-one extensions to small classes, interdisciplinary to mathematical thinking, and the capital market has not paid a valuation premium for its transformational story. The enthusiasm of Chinese parents to urge their children to learn English has deeply touched investors, and now the latter is a bit calm.

Since the beginning of this year, the total amount of financing for the educational track has become smaller, and a single large investment has decreased. 36氪 The recently released mid-year venture capital report said that there were 184 financing events in the education field in the first half of this year, with a transaction amount of 11.2 billion yuan, accounting for 6.6% of the total financing amount in the primary market, even the number one medical health industry. Half is not there.

The halo fades, and the Vipkid problem gradually emerges. The eye is about to touch the ceiling of the online English track in the children. The goal of 3 million students is difficult to achieve; the cost of obtaining passengers is far from high, and it will sink to second and third tier cities. Expanded; madly rushed to 20 billion in 2018, but failed to make a profit These are the main reasons for the cold of financing.

xxClose to the market ceiling

Compared with the traditional offline one-on-one and small classes, the online one-on-one class is flexible and convenient, and has a certain price/performance ratio. The future growth momentum comes from policy support, user acceptance of onlineization, and awareness of English quality education.

In 2018, China's K12 education (basic education) has an online scale of 26 billion yuan, and the current online rate is 7%. Among them, the online English education scale is 17 billion yuan. Subdivided into English language training (non-test, Vipkid market segment), the market size is about 14 billion yuan, the potential market size is 44 billion yuan, and the growth space is relatively limited.

The market is concentrated in the head, and the top four share of the industry is more than 80% concentrated. Because parents can not effectively assess the quality of training, mainly through the brand awareness, acquaintances recommend to understand online children's English training platform, audition platform teachers, word of mouth and cost-effective as the key elements of purchasing decisions.

At present, the penetration rate of Vipkid is close to saturation. As the number one brand, Vipkid is favored by parents.

In the market for users aged 4-12, Vipkid's current share is 65%, mainly in first-tier cities. It is expected that the market share will continue to increase to 70% by 2023, and the space for improvement is limited, mainly from second- and third-tier cities. Cities in the third-tier and below are expected to have lower penetration rates in the future, less than 5%.

The logic behind the Vipkid D+ round of valuation is that in the next two to three years, the one-to-one size will exceed 3 million, and the number of students in a one-to-many mode will exceed 3 million. According to the above permeability prediction, this growth target is difficult to achieve.

In August 2018, Vipkid first disclosed its other five major brands, including overseas Chinese learning for children, online English 1 to 4 small classes, and 9-12 year old youth classes. In March 2019, Vipkid first crossed the field of mathematical thinking.

xx但Vipkid的一对多产品还没有运行。原始模型只需要完成教师和学生之间的一对一匹配。它灵活高效,并切换到一对多对模式。学生人数的增加将带来课程安排的不确定性,甚至几何增长,系统水平面临着匹配机制。更高。

在实践中,一到四门课程,虽然人均费用减少,但由于学生经常缺勤,教师的报酬较高,而且四名学生获得学生的费用不能被稀释。

在教学和研究与教学中,如何在一对多课程中引入游戏化课件,如何确保学生之间的合作等,都具有挑战性。 Vipkid在线1到4名学生互动不强,家长觉得培训效果不理想。

跨学科进入在线素质教育更加困难。学生面临的问题包括:家庭教师的教学主要是缺乏规范的教学方法。由于教师水平,考试难度,非关键需求的难度,Vipkid的现有资源难以使用。

未解决的利润问题

经过6年的疯狂和近70亿的收入,Vipkid仍未能盈利。目前的营业利润率为-10%,净利润率为-50%。更高的教师和客户成本是在线一对一模式难以打破的成本法则。

根据一年的课程套餐价格,计算每个玩家的单轨模型,大多数玩家赔钱。 Vipkid为高端客户支付的高额费用导致了更高的一流损失率。

在Vipkid的第一笔费用中,教师的工资为50%,客户成本为45%,第一次损失率约为25%。这意味着对于每个新订单,它将失去1/4收入。 5%的51Talk,8%的VIPJr。

旧的乘客续费费用可以节省乘客的费用,因此大多数玩家都可以获利。但是,由于Vipkid的回购价格较低,老师和班主任的成本很高,因此续费费的利润率不高,只有10%。相比之下,51Talk的指标为45%,VIPJr为25%。

随着Vipkid进入二线和三线城市,收购成本将继续上升,并且该路线的价格将随着城市消费水平而下降,这意味着未来Vipkid的损失将继续扩大。

虽然低水平城市线索的成本较低,但每个环节的转换率较低,因此整体付费用户将拥有较高的客户成本。到2023年,公共通道的乘客成本预计将增加近70%。

乐观估计,到2023年,Vipkid的营业利润可以增加到近30%,使得净利润得以盈亏平衡。主要驱动因素是提高价格,优化教师利用率和客户获取成本,以及减少研发成本分摊。

不可否认的是,Vipkid在品牌知名度,教学和研究能力以及运营水平方面处于领先地位,但它接近市场上限,主要依赖于二线城市用户的增长。新模式还没有完成,很难说是一个不断增长的持续盈利。好故事。

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